A few weeks ago, Adam Williams posted something that has stuck with me:
The business owner who has failed 10 times understands more about their business than the one who succeeded the first time.
Seriously, if you learn nothing else this year, it should be that.
Too often, our society gets caught up in outcomes instead of decision-making.
Decision-Making
According to Eva Krockow, we make about 35,000 decisions a day.
THIRTY
FIVE
THOUSAND
EACH DAY
Think about it: should I get up or go back to bed? Which of these Hawaiian shirts should I wear? Is today a fancy flip-flop day? And that is just breakfast, not even work yet.
Here’s the liberating part—most of these decisions are completely meaningless. Realizing this can free you from feeling crushed by every choice.
Two Parts of Every Decision
Every decision breaks down into two components:
- Did I use a good process to make this decision?
- Did I get a good outcome?
This leads to four possible scenarios:
Good Process – Good Outcome
I hope you live here.
Think things through and get the outcome you want most of the time.
Steps I follow:
- Does this decision really matter? If no, skip to #4
- If yes, how much time should I allow to make this decision correctly?
- What do I need to know to make the right decision?
- Commit to a decision that “feels” right
For big decisions, the time in #2 and data in #3 should influence the “feeling” in #4.
For example, for my next marketing campaign, I gather historical data, create a plan, and take an hour to think it through.
For small choices, like which flip-flops to wear, my gut is enough.
Bad Process – Bad Outcome
This is the one we always want to avoid.
It is when you copy someone else’s idea without thinking and it blows up in your face.
I have lived this often. The major goal of this newsletter is to help you avoid this trap.
Good Process – Bad Outcome
This is the toughest quadrant.
Examples:
- Selling books online before Amazon existed
- Think and Grow Rich stories of missed opportunities
- Starting an Orange Theory Fitness franchise on March 10, 2020
- Preparing for a major case only to lose at trial
Sometimes, even with the best intentions and planning, outcomes fail due to luck, timing, or factors beyond your control.
The scariest part? We may not learn the right lessons here because we made the right call. Sometimes, you just need to shrug and try again.
Bad Process – Good Outcome
This is the easiest quadrant.
We did something poorly but got lucky.
Examples:
- Drinking and driving but not hitting anything
- FedEx’s founder gambling in Vegas to cover a fuel bill
- Investing your last $1000 in a risky venture that pays off
- Not prepping for a big trial but still winning
Sometimes luck is in our favor. Sometimes we are the 1% longshot. Sometimes events randomly align.
The danger here is thinking our process was better than it was.
Key Takeaways
- Focus on having a good process for decisions and worry less about the outcome.
- Prioritize the decisions that matter most.
- Allocate time and resources to make the right call, even if it does not work out.
If anyone wants to share a funny story about a decision or its outcome, I will run the best ones next week.
Next week, we will explore second-order thinking—how this decision impacts the next decision.
Until then, have a wonderful weekend!